4S Ranch

On Saturday, January 16, 2010, I got a chance to preview the two new home developments offered by California West Communities in 4S Ranch.  I arrived at about 11 am to the first one, Andalusia.  There was a big crowd of people walking through the models and enjoying snacks provided by Wahoo’s.  There are 4 floor plans available ranging in size from 2,222 to 3,226 square feet.  There is a very good single level floor plan which I liked.  It has a good, open kitchen and “great room”.  While there is no living room there is a formal dining room.  The other plus is it has a guest suite.  Plan three has a great island in the kitchen, however, I found that walking in the front door to the dining room unacceptable.  I prefer a more formal entry.  Overall, the models were perfectly decorated.  There was no firm pricing as of yet but the low to mid $600k’s is what I heard the staff saying.  After reading through the features page I would definitely need upgrades.

Next, I drove over to Monteluz, a proposed 63 home development here.  Again there was a good sized crowd enjoying snacks provided by Brett’s BBQ (food was good). There are three floor plans ranging in size from 2,556 to 3,949 square feet.  The lot sizes are larger here.  The average size is about 8,281 square feet compaired to 6,900 square feet in Andalusia.  Once again, there is a single level floor plan  offered. If you are wondering ”what’s the big deal” about a single level home, there were no single level homes in the north section of 4S Ranch.  As I walked through the models I was listening for buyers’ reactions and comments to the homes and everyone was very positive.   When asked ”which home did you like best”, I was surprised that it was the single level floor plans.  The prices here are said to be in the high $600,000’s.  The homes and lot sizes are larger and there are better standard features such as granite counter tops than in Andalusia. 

The Grand Opening is scheduled for Saturday, January 30th.  Click here for directions

Happy New Year - January 4, 2010; it’s great to be starting off a new year.  Inventory is down in 4S Ranch.  As of today there are only 9 traditional listings available for sale in 4S Ranch plus 4 short sales.  The other 17 listings are contingent sale listings with accepted offers waiting for an agreement decision from the lender.  2009 was not a bad year in 4S Ranch.  Detached home sales increased by 10%.  Twice as many short sale listings closed escrow in 2009 compared to 2008.  Many homes priced below $700,000 are receiving multiple offers and are selling with a week or two.  Pending sales are down, however, I think it’s because of a lack of inventory of homes available for sale, because demand is very good.

12/1/2009 - Here is a very quick look at 4S Ranch real estate market.  The numbers for 4S Ranch show a good improvement over last year at this time.  The number of sold homes represents the number sold in the last 6 months.  There are very few active listings available.  The chart show 30 listings however 21 of them are contingent short sale listings (with accepted offers).  Leaving only 9 homes available.  Out of the 9 homes only 1 is priced below $700,000.  The 4S Ranch market below $700k is very strong.  Many homes priced below the $700k range are receiving multiple offers.  The is more opportunity for buyers in the homes priced above $700,000.

I have a new Rosemary Lane listing coming on the market in mid January - it is the 2455 sq.ft. floor plan - email me if you want more info.

With 20 contingent listings here in 4S Ranch waiting for lender approval to move on to the next step pending status, do you ever wonder if its worth while making an offer on a Short Sale listing?  Buyers are snapping up short sale listings very quickly and just as quickly moving on to the next listing.  Some of these listings have been on the market for over a year.  Many buyers after waiting 4 or 5 months lose interest or find out the lender will not accept their short sale at the price they offered. The worst case is after waiting months the lender forecloses.  Is it worth it?

To find out, I used matched paired analysis, I found 3 very good sets of sales.  The difference in price ranged from 8% to 12%. On first look about a 10% savings.  Or a $68,000 saving on the average priced home sold in 4S Ranch.  Then I started to dig a little deeper and consider other things, such as having to pay rent an additional 4 to 10 moths or more.  Most short sales take a long time to complete, the rare one closes in 2 months. So subtract rent.  6 months $2000 per month $12,000.  Next thing to consider is condition, short sale listings are sold in “AS IS” condition and most need carpet, paint and landscaping maybe another $15,000 or so.  In short sales the extra applicances are not included the big refrigerator nor the almost new washer and dryer so another $3,000.  This doesn’t take into account the short sales that are stipped down to the bone, light fixtures, binds and built-in appliances all removed.  Now you are looking about $30,000 in cost that you would not have with a traditional stagged to sell home. This takes the saving down to $38,000 or about 5.5%.  That’s still a pretty good deal if you can get it to close escrow.  The biggest risk with Short Sale listings is the inability to close escrow.  This year the number of short sale listings that closed escrow doubled from last year and I hope we will see the numbers improved next year. 

Halloween may be over but short sale listings are still haunting the 4S Ranch market.  Looking at the graph 68 homes sold in the last six months.  Out of the 68 homes 29% were short sales.  Currently there are only 32 homes for sale and 18 of those are in the contingent status (offers pending lender approval) leaving only 14 active listings of which 5 are short sales, 1 Bank foreclosure and only 8 traditional sales available for sale. WOW! -a little over a month’s worth of inventory.  Shouldn’t prices start to climb?  Isn’t marketing time dropping?  Not yet really and I blame it on the contingent short sales.  Once a property reaches contingent status all the millions of web sites need to pull the listing off the market.  Go to Realtor.com, it’s flooded with contingent homes for sale which you can not even make an appointment to see.  Looking at Craigslist you see contingent listings posted by other agents (not the listing agent) that have been contingent for well over 4 months - What sense does that make?  Is it hurting the market?  I think it is.  Homes listed all over the Internet that are really no longer for sale gives the impression the market is soft.  Short sale listings are receiving offers in less than a week, many have 1 or 2 back up offers waiting.  The Chanteclair subdivision, North 4S Ranch, sold 12 homes in one hour on Saturday August 15, 2009.  They already have a new Priority List for buyers when the new phase opens.  That’s not a soft market.  The Maybeck subdivision only has the models left and available for sale. 

The graph to the left displays the contingent sales as pending, whereby the seller has accepted an offer and the home is no longer available to show.  This paints a very different picture of the market.  I would like Internet sites such as Realtor.com to stop advertising contingent listings.  Further, I would like all short sale listings with accepted offers, as well as the “no longer available for showing” listings to stop being listed as active.  This skews the market statistics and ultimately misleads both buyers and sellers about market conditions.  Then buyers will better understand the market.  What do you think?

16926 Silver Crest Drive ~ 4 bedroom 3 bath homes located in the heart of 4S Ranch 

This home is perfect for the chef who loves to entertain!  It’s open and spacious lay-out is ideal for throwing the “perfect get-together”- from cozy Sunday dinners with close friends or large Super Bowl bashes.   Always wanted to have Thanksgiving Dinner at your home but never had the room?  Now you can!

As you approach the front door you are greeted by the outstanding beautiful architectural details of this John Laing built Rosemary Lane home.  When you open the front door you are dazzled by 18″ tile running all the way to the back of the house.  The main level boasts a cozy living room, bedroom and full bath.  Further down the hallway you enter the huge kitchen, dining and family room areas.  Three different rooms that blend very well into each other perfect for entertaining.  The host/hostess will never feel left out of the party.

This “picture perfect” home has been upgraded with French doors.  The bathroom counter tops are Silestone /Quartz.  The Mud Room features corian counter tops and lots of cabinets for storage.  The main level bathroom has been upgraded with a raised oval sink and matching toilet. 

Another great surprising feature of this home is the extreme energy efficiency of the Ainsworth LuminOX radiant barrier panels built into the roof.  This feature will save you money on your cooling bills for years to come. 

The slogan for 4S Ranch is “It’s all right here” and it’s so true.  There are great parks and hiking trails, shopping and restaurants, employment centers and great schools.  If you must leave to go to the beach or commute to work, it’s very quick to access I-15.

What to do with the contingent sale category in the MLS?  Sometime in June Sandicor, San Diego County Regional MLS, started a contingent status group basically for short sales.  This was a great idea as it put agents on notice an offer had been contingently accepted subject to lender approval.   Now the tricky part comes in tracking the stats.  Do you track them as their own category, add them to the pending (but really they are not pending) or group them with the active?  I spent a long thinking about this, my goal is to present a very timely accurate picture of the current market conditions to my readers.  I took a close look at the contingent sales.  Many have been on the market a long time, buyers can’t wait for ever and some of the prices looked like a joke, I just saw one come back on the market an active listing with a $50,000 price increase, this is not uncommon.  Unfortunately many agents really don’t understand value.  That’s where I have a huge advantage over most.  I have an appraisal background.  I earned an SRA designation from the Appraisal Institute and when licensing was introduce I was one of the first 4000 people in California to receive a license.  I turned in my license in 2006 when I thought there was something very wrong with the system, as licensing was created by the Savings and Loan meltdown of the late ’80’s resulting in the Resolution Trust Corporation  - but that’s another story.  As an appraiser I would be called by a lender to do a pre-foreclosure appraisal today many of the lenders are using Broker Price Opinion instead of limited scope appraisals.  So the bank has a very good idea of how much the home is worth in today’s market and agents need to price listings accordingly.   With all this, I decided to keep contingent sales in the active category as I track the market.

Looking at the market numbers for 4S Ranch comparing this year to last the biggest difference is inventory, it’s down.  As of September 1st 2009 there are only 29 active listings including the contingent listings, last year there were 44.  Pending sales and the number of homes sold in the last 6 months remained about the same.  As inventory contracts we should see prices start to rise.  The big question still is the Notices of Defaults that have been filed.  Most homeowners in trouble I speak with are trying to do a loan modification with the help of an attoney, the process unfortunatley is taking a long time to complete. 

The 4S Ranch market is moving a long at a good pace.  In 2008 about 120 detached homes sold and we look on track to sell around same.  90 homes have sold so far this year.  If there was more inventory in homes priced below $700,000 we could definitely sell more homes.  There is only 1 short sale listing available below $700,000.  I personally have a number of buyers actively looking to buy and are being priced out to the market.

The big difference I see in the market this year compared to last is the number of short sales that closed escrow.  In 2008 short sales made up only 15% of the units sold where as this year we are seeing short sales account for 33% of the sales.  I think this trend  will continue.   As a buyer you should give consideration to the short sale listings.  Weed out the bad ones such as listings that are priced incredibly low or homes that have more than 2 loans and haven’t paid the property taxes or HOA fees.  Make a reasonable offer that a lender would approve.  Some buyers and their agents don’t get it, a short can be a good deal but it’s not a steal, lender will not approve giving away the property.

As of July 1, 2009 there are only 11 single family detached homes for sale in 4S Ranch.  Homes are selling in less than 2 weeks.  There is a waiting list for buyers at one of the new home sale builders. Buyers are out in numbers buying homes before schools starts in the fall.  Last weekend I held one of my listings, located at 17046 Albert Ave, open.  I had over 25 people through the house in only 3 hours.  Currently, there is less than a 3 month supply of homes for sale in 4S Ranch.  The market has really changed in a year.

The 4S Ranch real estate market is stabilizing and may be experiencing an overall increase in prices.  The market has seen more than a 50% drop in inventory from July 2008.  This is not from sellers giving up and pulling their homes off the market but rather, from home sales.  As of this morning there are 11 homes for sale, 11 contingent offers (short sales waiting for bank approval) for a total of 22.   Last July the MLS was not tracking contingent listings and they were grouped together with active listings for a total of 45. 

The big issue that I see coming now is the Appraisal.   Buyers may be willing to pay more for a home than it will appraise for and the home may be worth more than the current appraised value.  The appraisal process is a science and an art.  Unless the appraiser works consistently in the 4S Ranch market he is going to have to spend extra time researching the local market.

If you are a traditional seller, you don’t want the appraiser to compare your home to a short sale or bank foreclosure without making proper, market related adjustments.  With a short sale the property suffers a penalty for the unknown wait factor of “THE BANK APPROVAL” of the transaction.  This mandates a longer market time that doesn’t necessarily reflect typical market exposure time.  Short Sales in most cases are not staged to sell.  They may need paint, carpet and repairs.  As a result buyers will typically offer less than market pricing.  Buyers offer top dollar for homes in excellent condition, even if the home is a bank foreclosure.  It’s important to get an accurate appraisal. There is nothing wrong with appraisers using short sale and foreclosures as comparable sales as long as they make the necessary and competent market adjustments.

Last year Short Sale listings sat on the market giving an impression to the world that nothing was selling in 4S Ranch.  So far this year 23 short sales have closed escrow compared to only 8 for the same period last year (January 1 to June 30th).  For all 2008 only 17 short sale listings closed escrow.  Right now there are only 2 short sale listings available for offers.  There are 11 contingent short sale listings with offers waiting for Bank approval and another 8 pending short sale listings with bank approval, getting ready to close.

Short Sale listings may be the best opportunity available to get a great deal on a home in 4S Ranch.  Traditional listings are selling quickly, sometimes within less than two weeks on the market.  The Chanteclair subdivision (new homes) has a waiting list for buyers.  The new release on June 7th sold out very quickly.  So what changed?  The market for sure and the way Banks look at short sales.  The government has stepped in to help with incentives for lenders.  Some of the larger Banks are trying to streamline and standardize the short sale process.  This is good for everyone.  Additionally, a number of companies have sprung up to assist agents in processing short sale transactions. 

• Are all short sale listings going to be able to close escrow?  No.
• Are they going to be a steal? No.  Just an opportunity to purchase slightly below market value.
• Are Short Sale listings good for the neighborhood? Yes - a large number of Foreclosure listings in a neighborhood drags all the property values down.

Here is a great Short Sale listing that I have in 4S Ranch, 17046 Albert Ave, currently listed for $725,000.  It is 3,628 square feet with 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths.  It’s a great home for someone looking for a great deal in 4S Ranch. 

To check out values in the neighborhood order your Free Market Snapshot today!